Los Cabos Real Estate Market Report — Q2 2026

Los Cabos real estate in Q2 2026 is a confirmed buyer's market. Active inventory has crossed 2,300 listings — more than double a year ago — while sellers willing to price realistically are still closing inside 90 days. Condo medians are softening 3–5%. Single-family homes in master-planned communities are still posting 6–8% YoY gains.

1. The Q2 2026 Headline Numbers

Q2 2026 closes with an estimated $410–$425M USD under contract across Los Cabos — modestly above the $391M reported in Q1 2026 by Cabo Real Estate Services. Unit volume is tracking 360–375 sold, in line with Q1's 350. The story of Q2 is not the headline volume — it is the inventory glut and the slow rebalancing underneath it.

Q1 2026 marked a turning point. Cabo Real Estate Services' Q1 report confirmed inventory had reached "a new peak of 2,320 active houses and condos." Q2 holds that level — supply is no longer growing, but it has not yet been absorbed. The market is in the longest stretch of months-of-inventory above 18 since the 2009 downturn.

Here is the at-a-glance picture for Q2 2026:

• Sales volume: $410–425M USD (est.) under contract, +5–8% over Q1
• Unit volume: 360–375 sold (vs Q1's 350)
• Active inventory: ~2,310 listings (flat vs Q1's 2,100, double last year's 1,100)
• Months of inventory: 18–20 (buyer's market threshold is 6)
• Median DOM, houses: 185 (down from Q1's 190, Q4 2025's 218)
• Median DOM, condos: 200 (vs Q1's 197)
• House prices: +6–8% YoY (Quivira, Diamante leading at 8–10%)
• Condo prices: –3 to –5% YoY in oversupplied corridors

2. Q1 vs Q2 2026: What Changed

Q2 is the first quarter in this cycle where inventory growth flattened. Q1 saw active listings explode from ~1,100 to ~2,100 in a single quarter — a 91% jump. Q2 added only ~210 more listings net. That is the early signal that the supply expansion has run its course and absorption is starting.

Metric	Q1 2026	Q2 2026 (est.)	Change
Sales volume (USD)	$391M	$410–425M	+5–8%
Units sold	350	360–375	+3–7%
Active inventory	2,100	2,310	+10%
Months of inventory	19	18–20	~flat
House DOM	190	185	–3%
Condo DOM	197	200	+2%
House median price	+7% YoY	+6–8% YoY	~stable
Condo median price	–8.6% (2BR)	–3 to –5%	stabilizing

The most encouraging Q2 data point: the two-bedroom condo segment, which Cabo Real Estate Services flagged in Q1 with an 8.6% median decline, is showing signs of stabilization. Q2 brought the decline back into the 3–5% range as sellers exited the market or repriced to clear. For Q1's full breakdown, see our Q1 2026 market report.

3. Segment Breakdown: Where Prices Are Moving

Q2 confirms that Los Cabos is not one market — it is at least four distinct submarkets running in different directions. Master-planned, branded, and oceanfront product continues to appreciate. Mid-tier condo product is correcting. Pacific-side emerging markets are racing ahead on a smaller base. Here is the Q2 reading by segment.

Master-planned and branded (+6–10% YoY): Pedregal, Palmilla, Quivira, Diamante, Chileno Bay, and Costa Palmas are still posting strong YoY gains. The branded residence pipeline is the main driver — St. Regis at Quivira (opens summer 2026), Soho House and Park Hyatt at Cabo Del Sol, and Amanvari at Costa Palmas are repricing land values across these communities. Listings near these developments are commanding 8–12% premiums versus comparable product a mile away.

Single-family corridor (+4–6% YoY): Non-branded SFH product in El Tezal, Cabo Bello, Cresta del Mar, and Rancho Paraiso is holding steady with modest appreciation. Inventory is balanced — about 4–6 months of supply versus the broader market's 18+.

Mid-tier condos (–3 to –5% YoY): The oversupply zone. Pre-construction projects sold heavily during the 2022–2024 cycle are delivering into a softer market. Two-bedroom condos in the $400K–$700K band are taking the brunt of the correction. Sellers offering 5–8% concessions are clearing inventory; sellers anchored to 2024 list prices are sitting.

Pacific-side emerging (+10%+ YoY): Cerritos Beach, El Pescadero, and Todos Santos are the breakout submarkets. Lower entry prices ($300K–$800K for ocean-view product), surf culture, and continued infrastructure investment are pulling US buyers north of the airport. Our Todos Santos real estate guide covers the dynamics in depth.

4. The Branded Residence Effect

The single most important Q2 story is not in the median price data — it is in the pipeline. 2026 is the biggest year of luxury branded openings in Los Cabos history. Park Hyatt at Cabo Del Sol opened in late 2025. St. Regis at Quivira opens summer 2026 with 120 rooms plus 60 branded residences and a Michelin-starred culinary program led by Carlos Gaytán. Soho House at Cabo Del Sol opens in November 2026 with 45 residences and 5 villas. Amanvari at Costa Palmas opens August 1, 2026 with 18 casitas and a limited collection of residences ranging from 13,000–20,000 sq ft.

These openings do not just reprice the units inside the gate — they reprice the surrounding land for 5+ miles in every direction. Buyers who close on adjacent inventory before the openings consistently see 10–20% appreciation in the 18 months after a major brand debuts. We covered this dynamic in detail in our 2026 branded residence wave analysis.

5. Q2 2026 Neighborhood Leaderboard

Here is where the money is moving in Q2. Rankings are based on a blend of unit velocity, median list-to-sale ratio, and YoY median price change, drawn from Cabo Real Estate Services, BHHS Baja, and broker MLS feeds.

1. Quivira (Pacific Side, Cabo San Lucas): +9% YoY. St. Regis opening is dominating buyer attention. Active listings under $2M are clearing in 60–90 days.
2. Costa Palmas (East Cape): +8% YoY. Amanvari's August opening has accelerated activity. Costa Palmas Marina and Four Seasons-branded inventory is moving at 95%+ of list.
3. Diamante (Pacific Side): +8% YoY. Tiger Woods-designed El Cardonal and Davis Love III's Dunes course continue pulling golf buyers. New construction is selling pre-build.
4. Pedregal (Cabo San Lucas): +7% YoY. Cliffside estates in the $5M–$15M range are the strongest luxury segment. See our Pedregal vs Palmilla comparison.
5. Palmilla (Corridor): +6% YoY. One&Only halo plus the Jack Nicklaus golf course keeps demand resilient. DOM running below the regional median.
6. Chileno Bay (Corridor): +6% YoY. Auberge-branded inventory holding firm. The new Chileno Bay residences are the segment's pricing benchmark.
7. Cerritos Beach (Pacific Side): +12% YoY (on smaller base). Surf-driven entry-market is the highest-growth submarket in the region.
8. San Jose del Cabo Art District: +5% YoY. Slower appreciation but lowest entry price among walkable urban markets.

6. What Brokers Are Actually Saying

The data is one input. What experienced brokers are telling clients on June 9 is the other. Three themes dominate the agent conversations across Ronival, BHHS Baja, and the AMPI member desks this quarter:

Theme one: "Negotiate on price, but the right inventory will not last." Sellers are accepting 4–8% off list on properties that have sat 120+ days. New, well-priced inventory is getting multiple offers inside 30 days. The buyer's market is real on the aging side of the listing pool, but the freshest, best-priced product is still moving like a balanced market.

Theme two: "The condo correction is not a crash — it is a healthy reset." The 3–5% Q2 condo softening unwinds the 2023–2024 over-exuberance. Brokers are not seeing distressed sellers, foreclosure inventory, or developer fire sales. They are seeing rational sellers who chased the 2024 peak too late and are now realigning.

Theme three: "Buyers waiting for 2027 are going to miss the window." The branded openings, the 2026 FIFA World Cup attention cycle (Mexico is a co-host), and continued cross-border buyer migration are all setting up Q4 2026 / Q1 2027 as the inflection back to a balanced market. Brokers are advising clients to lock in negotiable inventory now.

7. Rental Income and Investment Yields

For buyers running rental investment math, Q2 2026 yields remain attractive. Well-located 2BR condos in Cabo San Lucas are achieving 65–80% peak-season occupancy at nightly rates of $250–$450. Mexico News Daily reported sustained tourism growth into 2026, with SJD airport handling record passenger volume in Q1.

Net rental yields (after HOA, property management, fideicomiso fees, and Mexican tax obligations) are running:

• Cabo San Lucas condos: 6–9% net annual yield
• Corridor luxury homes: 4–6% net annual yield (offset by stronger appreciation)
• San Jose del Cabo Art District: 5–7% net annual yield
• East Cape / Costa Palmas: 5–8% net yield once Amanvari opens
• Pacific Side / Cerritos: 6–8% net yield, growing with surf-tourism

For a full breakdown of the rental investment math, see our Cabo vacation rental ROI guide.

8. Cross-Border Financing in Q2 2026

Roughly 75–80% of foreign transactions in Cabo continue to close as cash deals, but the financing market for cross-border buyers has materially improved through Q2 2026. US-based lenders specializing in Mexico real estate are quoting 30-year fixed mortgages in the 7.5–9.5% range for qualified borrowers, with 50–65% loan-to-value ratios standard for branded and master-planned communities. Mexican peso-denominated mortgages from Scotiabank, BBVA, and Santander remain available at 9–12% with 60–70% LTV.

For cash buyers, the wire-and-fideicomiso closing timeline has held steady at 40–45 days. Buyers using cross-border financing should add 4–6 weeks to that window for underwriting. The peso has held in the 17.0–17.8 range against the dollar through Q2 — a stable enough environment that most buyers are not actively hedging FX risk at closing.

For the full mechanics of closing costs and the fideicomiso bank trust, see our Mexico closing costs guide and fideicomiso bank trust explainer.

9. Risks and Headwinds to Watch

Q2 is healthy, but no honest market report skips the risks. Four to watch heading into Q3:

• Condo overhang persistence: If new construction deliveries continue into Q3–Q4 without comparable absorption, the 3–5% condo softening could extend into a 6–8% correction in the most oversupplied corridors.
• USD/MXN volatility: The peso has held in the 17–18 range through Q2. A move below 16 or above 20 would reset cross-border buying power.
• Cross-border financing rates: Mexican mortgage rates for foreign buyers remain in the 8–12% range. A US Fed shift could compress or extend yields.
• Construction cost inflation: New construction is pricing at $400–$700 per square foot for premium product. If costs run further, replacement-cost pressure could put a floor under condo softening sooner than expected.

10. Q3 and Q4 2026 Outlook

The consensus from the agent desks at BHHS Baja and the Cabo Real Estate Services analytics team points to a Q3–Q4 transition back toward balance. Three openings (St. Regis, Soho House, Amanvari) will land within a 4-month window between July and November 2026. The branded openings are projected to absorb 250–400 condo units of latent buyer demand as the halo effect spreads across the Corridor and East Cape.

Brokers are forecasting:

• Condo softening reverses by Q4 2026 — full-year 2026 condo medians end flat to +2%
• House medians end 2026 at +6–9% YoY across master-planned communities
• Months of inventory drops from 18–20 in Q2 to 12–14 by year-end
• 2027 returns to a balanced market with low-single-digit appreciation

The buyer-side leverage of this cycle is not permanent. Buyers who have been waiting since 2023 for inventory and negotiation room are getting both right now. By Q1 2027, the math is expected to favor sellers again.

11. How to Play Q2 2026

If you have been on the sidelines: this is the quarter to engage. Inventory is at a cyclical peak, sellers are negotiable, and the branded-residence catalyst hits inside the next 90–180 days. The playbook is straightforward.

1. Focus your search on aged inventory. Listings 120+ days old are where seller motivation is real. Filter MLS searches to listings with at least one price reduction.
2. Underwrite to current rents, not 2024 peaks. Vacation rental nightly rates have stabilized — model occupancy at 55–65% to be conservative.
3. Prioritize submarkets with branded catalysts. Quivira, Costa Palmas, Cabo Del Sol, and Pedregal-adjacent inventory has the highest probability of post-opening appreciation.
4. Get pre-positioned on financing. If you are not paying cash, line up cross-border financing now — pre-approval timelines are running 4–6 weeks.
5. Work with a broker who has Q2 comps in hand. The market has moved enough in six months that 2025 comps are useless. Live data matters.

Ready to act on Q2 data? Explore our community guides and development index, or jump straight to current listings via property search. If you want a personalized read on which submarket fits your budget and goals, contact our team. The 2026 cycle will not give buyers this much leverage twice.