The Cabo Real Estate Calendar: When to Buy, When to Sell, and When the Deals Hide

The Cabo real estate market follows a predictable annual cycle that most buyers never study. Peak season runs November through February with the highest prices and competition. Green season from May through September offers 10-15% negotiation leverage and developer incentives. This is the month-by-month calendar I use to time deals for my clients.

Peak Season: November Through February

This is when Cabo's real estate market operates at full throttle. Snowbirds arrive, holiday vacationers tour properties between beach days, and the weather is perfect — 75-85°F with zero rain. Approximately 55-65% of annual transaction volume occurs during these four months.

November — The Ramp-Up

November is the market's ignition month. Several dynamics converge:

• New inventory hits: sellers who prepped properties during summer list them now for maximum exposure. October-November sees the highest volume of new listings.
• Snowbirds start scouting: the first wave of US and Canadian seasonal residents arrives. Many are shopping — they have spent the summer researching online and arrive ready to tour.
• Developer launches: new phases and developments time their reveals for November to capture the peak-season audience. This is when you see the splashy launch events at Quivira, Diamante, and other master-planned communities.
• Weather: temperatures drop to 80-85°F, humidity falls, and the rainy season ends. Cabo is at its most beautiful.

Buyer strategy: if you want first pick of new inventory and new development phases, November is your month. But expect to pay full asking price — the market is energized and sellers know it.

December & January — The Frenzy

These two months account for the most competitive buying conditions in the annual cycle. Inventory is at its annual peak, but so is buyer traffic. Properties that are priced right sell within weeks, sometimes days.

• Holiday visitors convert to buyers: a significant percentage of Cabo property purchases begin as vacation conversations. "We should look at a place down here" turns into showings by December 28th.
• Highest pricing confidence: sellers and listing agents know this is when demand peaks. Discounting is rare. Properties that sat during green season get repriced (upward) for December.
• HOA annual meetings (January-February): most HOA meetings in communities like Pedregal, Palmilla, and Cabo del Sol are scheduled during these months when owner attendance is highest. If you are buying into a community, attending the HOA meeting before closing gives you invaluable insight into community health.

Buyer strategy: come prepared. Have your financing arranged, your fideicomiso bank selected, and your legal team on standby. Deals move fast in December and January, and properties that sell during this window rarely come back.

February — Peak Closings Begin

February marks the beginning of the first closing wave. Deals struck in November and December hit the 40-45 day closing timeline and start funneling through notario offices. This is also when many buyers who delayed through the holidays return for serious purchasing.

Transaction volume remains high, but there is a subtle shift: the holiday energy fades, and serious buyers replace casual browsers. If you are selling, February is your last month of peak leverage before the spring transition.

Spring Transition: March and April

March — The Closing Wave and Rental Income Spike

Two important things happen simultaneously in March:

• Peak-season closing wave: transactions from the November-February buying season close en masse. Notario offices are at their busiest. If you are closing during this period, expect scheduling delays of 1-2 weeks at popular notarios.
• Spring break rental income: if you own a vacation rental property, March is one of your highest-revenue months. US spring break drives occupancy to 80-90% with premium nightly rates. This is the month that often makes the annual rental income math work.

Buyer strategy: March is the last month before green-season discounts start appearing. If you've been waiting, this is your decision point — buy now at full market pricing or wait for summer leverage.

April — The Slowdown Begins

Tourist traffic drops after Easter. The snowbird population thins out. Temperatures start climbing toward summer levels (85-90°F). The market shifts from sellers to neutral.

For buyers, April is a transitional month — prices are still at peak-season levels, but motivated sellers who did not close during the winter start considering whether to adjust pricing for the slower months ahead. Late April can offer early hints of green-season flexibility.

Green Season: May Through September

This is where strategic buyers make their money. The term "green season" is the local euphemism for summer — temperatures hit 90-100°F, humidity rises, and afternoon thunderstorms bring brief but intense rain. The desert turns green. Tourist traffic plummets.

For the real estate market, green season means three things: fewer buyers, more motivated sellers, and developer incentives.

May & June — The Leverage Window Opens

• 10-15% negotiation leverage: sellers who listed at peak-season prices and did not close now face 5-6 months of lower traffic. Many are willing to negotiate — especially non-resident sellers paying carrying costs on empty properties.
• Developer incentives appear: pre-construction developers need to maintain sales velocity for cash flow and construction financing. Common incentives include 5-10% discounts, closing cost credits, upgraded finish packages, and extended payment terms.
• Fewer competing buyers: the pool of buyers touring properties drops dramatically. You are not competing against six other offers — you might be the only showing that week.
• Predial deadline passed: Mexico's annual property tax (predial) is due in January-February, with an early-payment discount. By May, sellers have already absorbed this cost for the year, which can make them more receptive to covering other closing expenses.

July Through September — Hurricane Season and the Biggest Deals

This is the lowest-traffic period of the entire year. Hurricane season officially runs June through November, with peak risk August through October. Major hurricanes hitting Cabo are rare — the last significant storm was Hurricane Odile in September 2014 — but the perception of risk keeps many buyers away.

That perception gap is your opportunity.

• Lowest inventory: many sellers pull listings or pause marketing during hurricane season, so available properties are fewer — but the sellers who remain are the most motivated.
• Biggest negotiation leverage: 10-15% below asking is the starting point, not the ceiling. I have seen deals close at 18-20% below listing price during August and September.
• Construction pacing: summer rains slow outdoor construction. Pre-construction developers may offer additional incentives to maintain cash flow during this period.
• Least competition: you are shopping alongside serious investors and returning expats, not vacationers on a property-browsing whim. The quality of competing offers is higher, but the volume is much lower.

Buyer strategy: if you have the flexibility to fly to Cabo in July or August and the financial readiness to move fast, this is when you get the best pricing of the year. Pair the lower price with the standard closing cost structure and your total investment basis is as favorable as the market allows.

Construction and Renovation Timing

Summer rains affect outdoor construction schedules. If you are purchasing a property that needs renovation or you are building a custom home, factor this into your timeline. Concrete pours, exterior painting, and landscaping slow or pause during the wettest weeks (typically late August through mid-September). Interior work continues unaffected.

This has a secondary market effect: properties that require work are sometimes priced more aggressively during green season because sellers know the renovation timeline extends into the next year. A property listed at $1.2M in January that needs $200K in outdoor renovation might sit at $1.05M by August — the seller is pricing in the buyer's carrying cost through the rain months.

Rental Income by Month — The Revenue Calendar

If you own rental property in Los Cabos, the seasonal cycle directly determines your income distribution. Understanding this is critical for cash flow planning:

• December-March: peak rental months. These four months generate 50-60% of annual gross rental income. Nightly rates at their highest, occupancy at 75-95%. This is when your property earns its keep.
• April: still strong through Easter week, then a sharp dropoff. Expect 60-70% of peak-month revenue.
• May-June: revenue drops to 35-50% of peak levels. Rates decline and occupancy thins. Some owners block these months for personal use since the opportunity cost is lower.
• July-September: lowest revenue months at 20-35% of peak levels. The combination of heat, humidity, and hurricane-season perception suppresses demand. Many management companies recommend aggressive pricing and minimum-stay reductions to maintain some occupancy.
• October-November: the ramp back up. October starts at 40-50% of peak revenue, November jumps to 70-85% as the season kicks in.

The practical implication: if you are buying a rental property and financing any portion with debt, your debt service must be sustainable through the May-September revenue valley. Too many buyers model rental income based on peak-season rates extrapolated across 12 months. The actual income curve is steeply seasonal. Our rental income guide breaks down the full math.

October — The New Cycle Begins

October marks the reset. Hurricane risk fades, temperatures start dropping, and the market prepares for the next peak season.

• New listings hit the market: sellers and agents who waited out green season launch fresh listings timed for November-February buyer traffic.
• Second closing wave: deals negotiated during green season close between October and December.
• Early snowbirds arrive: the first seasonal residents return and start scouting for the coming winter.
• Last chance for green-season pricing: a few lingering deals remain from summer, but the window closes fast as new inventory resets market expectations.

Seller strategy: list in late September or October. Your property captures the full November-February peak-season exposure window, and fresh listings generate the most interest.

The Notario Factor — Why Closing Dates Matter

One timing element unique to Mexico: every real estate transaction must close before a notario publico (a government-appointed attorney — see Mexico's National College of Notaries for background) — a government-appointed attorney who supervises the transfer. Unlike US title companies that can process multiple closings simultaneously, Mexican notarios handle a limited number of transactions per week.

During peak closing periods (February-April and October-December), scheduling at popular notario offices can add 1-2 weeks to your timeline. If your purchase agreement specifies a closing date, factor in notario availability. Your buying agent should be coordinating with the notario's office as soon as the purchase agreement is signed.

The Strategic Calendar Summary

Here is the year at a glance, calibrated for buyers:

• November-February: highest prices, most inventory, most competition. Buy only if you see a specific property you cannot risk losing.
• March-April: closing wave from winter deals. Transition period — prices firm but flexibility emerging.
• May-June: the leverage window opens. 10-15% below peak pricing. Developer incentives appear.
• July-September: lowest traffic, biggest deals, least competition. Hurricane-season psychology works in your favor.
• October: new cycle begins. Last green-season deals alongside fresh peak-season inventory.

The common mistake is buying when it feels best (December vacation, beautiful weather, energy in the air) rather than when the math is best (July, hot, quiet, maximum leverage). The property is the same property in both months. The price is not.

The Tax Calendar: Predial and Fiscal Deadlines

Mexico's annual property tax (predial) — administered by the municipal government of Los Cabos — is due in January, with most municipalities offering a 10-15% discount for early payment in January or February. This creates a subtle dynamic in the market:

• January-February: owners pay predial for the year. For non-resident owners who are not physically present, agents or property managers handle payment. This is the one fixed annual cost that every Cabo property owner faces regardless of whether they use or rent the property.
• For sellers: predial is paid for the full year in January. Sellers who have already paid and then list the property in March-April have effectively pre-paid a carrying cost that covers the buyer through December. This can be a negotiating point — particularly during green season when sellers are already more flexible on terms.
• ISR (income tax) filing: if you earn rental income in Mexico, your annual tax declaration is due in April. Quarterly provisional payments are due throughout the year. Your Mexican accountant (contador) manages this, but the fiscal calendar is worth knowing because it creates cash flow moments that can motivate sellers.

For specifics on what neighborhoods deliver the strongest returns regardless of timing, see our best areas guide. And if you are weighing whether to buy at all, our 2026 investment analysis covers the fundamentals.