Cabo Rental Seasonality: Month-by-Month Occupancy, Rates, and Revenue Data for 2026

I tell every buyer the same thing — run your pro forma on 50% annual occupancy and you will never be disappointed. But behind that conservative rule of thumb sits one of the most lopsided revenue calendars in the vacation rental world. December through April generates 60-70% of a Cabo rental property's annual income. September might cover your HOA fees if you are lucky. Here is the month-by-month breakdown that every investor needs before writing an offer.

The Three Seasons of Cabo Rental Revenue

Los Cabos does not have a simple high-low binary. It has three distinct revenue tiers, each with different occupancy expectations, pricing power, and guest demographics.

Peak Season: December Through April

This is when Cabo earns its reputation and your mortgage payment. Five months that generate the lion's share of your annual revenue.

• Hotel occupancy: 74-85%. January 2026 closed at 74% (Los Cabos Hotel Association data). February rose to 76%, driven by Valentine's Day travel. March is the annual peak, with Cabo San Lucas consistently exceeding 80% occupancy.
• STR nightly rates (2BR condo): $250-$450, with premium units on the Corridor commanding $400-$600+
• Guest profile: US and Canadian snowbirds (extended stays, 1-4 weeks), holiday travelers (Christmas/New Year, Presidents' Day, Spring Break), corporate retreats, and wedding groups
• Minimum stays: Most property managers set 5-7 night minimums during peak, with 7-14 night minimums during Christmas and New Year

The peak-season pricing power in Los Cabos is driven by a simple supply constraint: there are approximately 18,000 hotel rooms and an estimated 8,000-10,000 vacation rental units serving a destination that draws 3.7 million visitors annually. During peak months, demand consistently outstrips supply, especially for well-located two- and three-bedroom units that accommodate families and groups.

Shoulder Season: May-June and November

The transition months where smart operators make the difference between a good year and a great one.

• Hotel occupancy: 55-65%
• STR nightly rates (2BR condo): $180-$280
• Guest profile: Couples without school-age children, early retirees, European travelers (May-June), Thanksgiving travelers (November), and increasingly, remote workers on extended stays
• Pricing strategy: This is where dynamic pricing earns its keep. A static $350/night rate will sit empty. A rate that drops to $200-$250 with a 3-night minimum fills the calendar and generates incremental revenue that pure peak-season pricing misses.

November is the strongest shoulder month because Thanksgiving drives a reliable booking spike — particularly the Wednesday-through-Sunday window. May is stronger than June because post-Easter travelers who are not locked into school calendars take advantage of reduced rates before summer heat arrives.

Low Season: July Through October

The revenue desert. Four months where you learn whether your property can compete on value or sits empty waiting for December.

• Hotel occupancy: 35-50%. September is the absolute floor — the Gringo Gazette reported that Los Cabos hotels expected roughly 45% occupancy in September 2026, slightly below September 2025's 47%.
• STR nightly rates (2BR condo): $120-$200
• Guest profile: Budget-conscious travelers, Mexican domestic tourists (particularly August, when Mexican schools have summer break), surfers heading to the Pacific side, and sportfishing enthusiasts (marlin season peaks September-November)
• Hurricane season: June 1 through November 30 is officially hurricane season, with September and October carrying the highest risk. While direct hits on Los Cabos are rare, the perception of hurricane risk suppresses bookings even in years with no storms. After Hurricane Odile in 2014, September and October booking patterns still have not fully recovered.

Month-by-Month Revenue Model: A Two-Bedroom on the Corridor

Here is what a well-managed two-bedroom condo on the Tourist Corridor — let's say in Cabo del Sol or Palmilla Dunes — can realistically generate in 2026. This assumes professional property management, dynamic pricing, and quality furnishing and photography.

This model shows a well-performing two-bedroom condo grossing roughly $65,750 annually at 61% occupancy. AirDNA's market-wide average is lower — 42-44% occupancy at $179 RevPAR — because that includes studios, poorly managed listings, and units in less desirable locations. A professionally managed, well-photographed, dynamically priced two-bedroom on the Corridor consistently outperforms the market average.

Events That Drive Measurable Rate Spikes

Los Cabos hosts several events that create real, predictable demand surges. Smart operators build these into their pricing calendars:

• Christmas / New Year (Dec 20 - Jan 5): The absolute peak. Nightly rates jump 50-100% above standard peak pricing. Minimum stays of 7-14 nights are standard. This two-week window alone can generate $8,000-$15,000 for a two-bedroom.
• Bisbee's Black & Blue Marlin Tournament (October): The world's richest billfish tournament, with purses exceeding $4 million. Marina-adjacent properties see a 15-25% rate bump during tournament week. Downtown Cabo units benefit from the week-long party atmosphere.
• WWT Championship at Diamante (November): The PGA Tour event at Diamante's El Cardonal course brings international press coverage and golf tourism. Pacific-side properties near Diamante see the most direct benefit.
• Los Cabos Open (ATP Tennis, August): A smaller event but it falls in the low season when any demand boost matters. Properties near the Fonatur sports complex benefit.
• Día de los Muertos / Halloween (late October - early November): Growing in popularity with American and Canadian visitors. Provides a bridge between the October trough and the November Thanksgiving ramp.
• Spring Break (mid-March): Overlaps with peak season but drives specific demand from younger groups, bachelor/bachelorette parties, and family spring breaks. Cabo San Lucas downtown and Medano Beach properties see the biggest Spring Break premium.

Green Season Strategy: Making the Low Season Work

Most Cabo rental owners accept the low season as dead weight — four months of minimal revenue offset by lower expenses. That is leaving money on the table. Here is what the top performers do differently:

Extended Stay Discounts

Drop your nightly rate 30-40% for stays of 14+ nights during July-October. A month-long stay at $120/night beats an empty calendar. Target remote workers, digital nomads, and the growing segment of travelers who can work from anywhere and want to escape summer heat in Phoenix, Dallas, or Houston. Yes, Cabo is hot in August too — but it is beach-hot, not parking-lot-hot.

Mexican Domestic Market

August is when Mexican families vacation. List on MercadoLibre, Booking.com (strong in the Mexican market), and Spanish-language platforms. Price in pesos. The domestic traveler books later, stays shorter (3-5 nights), and is more price-sensitive than the peak-season American snowbird — but they are traveling in August when your unit would otherwise sit empty.

Sportfishing Packages

Marlin season peaks September through November — right in the revenue trough. Partner with a fishing charter operator to offer condo-plus-charter packages. A three-bedroom unit with a sportfishing day included at a bundled rate converts the angler market that would otherwise book a hotel. This works especially well for marina-area properties.

Surf Season (Pacific Side)

Summer brings the best surf to the Pacific side — Cerritos, Costa Azul, and the breaks near Todos Santos. If your property is on the Pacific, market it to the surf community. This is a niche audience but a loyal one that books direct, returns annually, and is less price-sensitive than you might expect. The surf-and-stay market overlaps significantly with the yoga-and-wellness crowd.

Pro Forma Rules I Give Every Buyer

1. Model at 50% annual occupancy. If the numbers work at 50%, everything above that is gravy. If you need 65% to break even, you are one bad season away from writing checks instead of cashing them.
2. Use conservative average nightly rates. Take the AirDNA market average ($179 RevPAR for Los Cabos) and adjust up 20-30% for a professionally managed two-bedroom on the Corridor. That gives you $215-$230 as a blended annual average. Do not use your March rate as the annual average.
3. Budget 25% of gross revenue for management and operational expenses. This covers the property manager, cleaning supplies, guest amenities, minor maintenance, and platform commissions. If your actual costs come in lower, great — but model conservatively.
4. Set aside $5,000-$10,000 annually for capital replacement. Furniture, appliances, linens, and electronics wear out faster in a rental environment than in a personal-use property. The salt air accelerates everything. Budget for it.
5. Do not count on appreciation to make the numbers work. Appreciation in Los Cabos has been strong — 5-10% annually in prime communities over the past five years — but it is not guaranteed. If the rental yield alone does not justify the investment, you are speculating, not investing.

Location Matters More Than Season

Not all two-bedrooms are created equal. The same month can look completely different depending on where your property sits:

• Tourist Corridor (Cabo del Sol, Palmilla, Chileno Bay): Premium rates, higher occupancy in peak season, strong appeal to the luxury vacation market. This is where the $65K+ annual gross model applies.
• Cabo San Lucas downtown / Marina: Higher occupancy in low season (walk-to-nightlife appeal) but lower nightly rates. Better for the budget and party traveler segments. Annual gross: $45,000-$60,000.
• San Jose del Cabo: Growing appeal with the art district, farm-to-table dining scene, and Thursday Art Walk. Lower rates than the Corridor but strong repeat-guest loyalty. Annual gross: $40,000-$55,000.
• Pacific side (Cerritos, Todos Santos, El Pescadero): Surf-season boost in summer partially offsets the general low-season dip. Strong with the digital nomad and wellness crowd. Annual gross: $35,000-$50,000 for a comparable unit.