Los Cabos Real Estate Market Report — Q3 2026: Fewer Deals, Bigger Numbers

Los Cabos crossed a psychological threshold in H1 2026: the average sale price hit $1,012,355 — the first time the market-wide average exceeded seven figures. But that headline masks a more nuanced story. Transaction volume dropped 17%, inventory expanded, and days on market stretched past 180 in multiple segments. Here is what the numbers actually mean.

The Headline Numbers

Source: The Agency Baja H1 2026 Halftime Report, Cabo Real Estate Services, BHHS Baja, and AMPI FlexMLS regional data.

Metric	H1 2026	H1 2025	Change
Properties Sold	557	~671	-17%
Total Volume	$563.8M	—	—
Average Sale Price	$1,012,355	—	Record
Condo Average	$731,972	~$605K	+21%
List-to-Sale Ratio	93-95%	93-95%	Flat
Pending Contracts	$394.6M	—	—

What "Fewer Deals, Bigger Deals" Actually Means

The narrative is not that the market is slowing. It is that the market is sorting. The post-pandemic flood of first-time Mexico buyers — people who came to Cabo during COVID, fell in love, and bought impulsively — has receded. What remains are more deliberate buyers with more capital, buying more expensive properties.

The evidence: condo units sold dropped from 356 in H1 2025 to 284 in H1 2026, but the average condo price jumped 21% to $731,972. Fewer buyers, but each one is buying at a higher price point. The luxury segment ($2M-$5M) posted 38 sales in Q1 alone, totaling $117M — double-digit growth over Q4 2025 in both volume and units (Cabo Real Estate Services).

The 2025 baseline for context: $1.59B in total sales volume across Baja California Sur, up 12% year-over-year (Snell & Wilmer analysis). Even with the H1 2026 volume dip, annualized 2026 is tracking to $1.1-1.3B — a pullback from the peak but well above pre-pandemic levels.

Inventory and Days on Market

Inventory has expanded, particularly in the condo segment. As of Q3 2025 (the most recent full-count data), 2,127 active listings totaled $2.547B in combined list value — $1.024B in condos and $1.523B in houses (Cabo Real Estate Services Q3 report).

Days on market have stretched past 180-200 in several segments (BHHS Baja). Properties are selling 5-8% below asking price on average, especially condos with high competition from similar units.

But here is the number that cuts through the noise: list-to-sale ratio remains at 93-95%. That means correctly priced properties are selling at or near their ask. The ones sitting at 200+ days are the ones priced on 2023 assumptions. If you price to the current market, the demand is there.

Performance by Segment

Condos

The condo segment is where the buyer's-market dynamic is most visible. More inventory, more competition, and more negotiating leverage for buyers. The median condo price sits around $900,000 (TheLatinvestor). The 21% average increase is driven by the mix shifting upward — more high-end condos selling while entry-level inventory sits.

For a breakdown of condo vs villa economics, see our condo vs villa comparison.

Luxury ($2M-$5M)

The luxury tier is outperforming the broader market. Q1 2026: 38 sales, $117M, double-digit growth in both unit count and dollar volume over Q4 2025. This segment is less sensitive to inventory expansion because the supply of $2M+ properties in top communities — Pedregal, Palmilla, Twin Dolphin, Querencia — is structurally limited.

Single-Family Homes

The Q1 2026 average single-family home price was $1.17M. Median sits around $575,000, reflecting the wide spread between a $400K house in El Tezal and a $10M villa in Pedregal. Single-family inventory is tighter than condos, particularly in gated communities with ocean views.

Price Per Square Meter

For international comparison, early 2026 data shows houses averaging approximately 20,000 MXN/m² (~$1,087/m²) and condos at roughly 43,500 MXN/m² (~$2,362/m²) (Properstar). That condo figure is skewed upward by resort-branded units in premium locations. A non-branded condo in San Jose del Cabo or El Tezal will be below that average.

For a granular neighborhood-by-neighborhood analysis of price per square foot, see our price per square foot analysis.

Rental Yield Data

Resort-zone condos in Los Cabos are generating gross rental yields of 7-9% according to AMPI data from the 2026 market edition. Net yields — after management fees (25-35%), HOA, maintenance, fideicomiso fees, insurance, and Mexican taxes — typically come in at 4-6%.

The spread between communities is significant. A beachfront condo at Medano Beach with strong Airbnb demand will outperform a hillside unit in a quieter community on gross yield but may also carry higher management costs. For detailed rental income projections by community, see our ROI analysis and rental regulations guide.

Who Is Buying

The market remains predominantly driven by US and Canadian buyers, with SJD Airport processing over 4.2 million passengers in the most recent annual data. New nonstop routes from Indianapolis, Las Vegas, and Austin in 2026 (full flight guide) are shifting buyer demographics: more Midwest and Mountain West buyers who previously defaulted to Hawaii or Florida are discovering Los Cabos for the first time.

The Canadian buyer segment has held steady despite currency headwinds. See our Canadian buyer's guide for the specific financial dynamics.

Q3 and H2 Outlook

Three factors to watch:

1. Mexico's AML reform (effective November 30, 2026): New anti-money-laundering requirements will add compliance steps to high-value transactions. Buyers and developers both need to prepare. See our AML reform guide.
2. Infrastructure: The new OOMSAPAS desalination plant targets October 2026 completion, and the Glorieta Fonatur overpass is at 72% completion. Both address long-standing infrastructure concerns that have weighed on buyer confidence.
3. Branded residences pipeline: Park Hyatt at Cabo del Sol, Soho House, and St. Regis at Quivira are all advancing through construction. Each one pulls a new buyer cohort into the market. See our branded residences analysis.

The market is not overheating and it is not crashing. It is repricing to reality after the post-pandemic sugar rush, with luxury holding firm and the mid-market adjusting. For buyers who have been waiting for negotiating leverage, this is the window. For sellers, the message is clear: price to the current market or wait.

For our previous reports, see the Q2 2026 and Q1 2026 market reports.