Los Cabos Q4 2026 Market Preview: Peak Season Pricing, Inventory, and What the Data Predicts

Peak season starts in eight weeks. For the Los Cabos real estate market, that means the November-through-April window when 60 percent of annual transactions close, when buyer traffic from the US and Canada surges, and when the market dynamics that shape pricing for the following year take hold.

Here is what the data says heading into Q4 2026 — inventory, pricing, days on market, and regional performance — and what it means if you are thinking about buying this fall.

Inventory: More Choices Than Three Months Ago

Active listings across the Los Cabos market total approximately 1,847 properties entering September 2026 — up 12 percent from Q3's mid-summer levels. This seasonal inventory increase is textbook Cabo: sellers list in September and October to capture peak-season demand that begins ramping in November.

Where the new inventory is concentrated:

• Cabo San Lucas: The largest inventory gain, particularly in the $300K to $600K condo segment. New listings in El Tezal, El Medano, and the marina area account for the bulk of CSL's inventory increase.
• San Jose del Cabo: Moderate inventory increase, driven by new construction deliveries in Fonatur and Puerto Los Cabos. The SJD segment is transitioning from a market dominated by resales to one with increasing new-construction supply.
• Corridor: Inventory is relatively flat. The luxury segment ($1M+) along the Corridor does not see the same seasonal listing surge because sellers at this price point tend to list when they decide to sell, not on a seasonal schedule.
• East Cape / Pacific Side: Both markets have limited inventory overall (combined roughly 180 to 220 active listings) and the seasonal pattern is less pronounced. Costa Palmas and Los Barriles see steady listing activity year-round.

What the inventory number means for buyers: more choices, more negotiating leverage (before the seasonal rush arrives), and the ability to compare across a wider selection of properties. Our best areas guide maps the geographic options, and our price per square foot analysis benchmarks value by region.

Pricing: Steady Growth, No Bubble

The overall Los Cabos median price sits at approximately $485,000 across all property types — condos, villas, homes, and land — representing 4.2 percent year-over-year growth. This is healthy, sustainable appreciation, well below the frothy double-digit gains some US markets saw in 2021-2022.

Regional pricing entering Q4:

Region	Median Price	YoY Change	Avg $/sq ft
Cabo San Lucas	$420,000	+3.8%	$310–$450
Tourist Corridor	$890,000	+5.1%	$500–$900
San Jose del Cabo	$385,000	+4.5%	$280–$420
East Cape	$620,000	+7.2%	$350–$600
Pacific Side	$340,000	+6.8%	$250–$400

The story within the data: the Corridor continues to dominate on absolute pricing, but the East Cape and Pacific Side are appreciating fastest — 7.2 percent and 6.8 percent respectively. This tracks with development activity in those regions: Costa Palmas is maturing as a destination, Los Barriles is attracting a growing kiteboarding and retirement community, and the Pacific Side is seeing new boutique development that is attracting buyers priced out of the Corridor. For the broader market context, see our 2027 market outlook.

Transaction Volume: Momentum Building

Approximately 412 transactions closed in Q3 2026, up 6 percent from Q2's roughly 389 closings. This acceleration is typical of the pre-peak-season period — deals that opened during late Q1 and Q2 are completing their 60 to 90 day closing timelines, and new deals initiated in Q3 will close in Q4 and Q1 2027.

By property type, Q3 closings broke down approximately:

• Condominiums: 58 percent of transactions (the dominant product type in Cabo)
• Single-family homes/villas: 24 percent
• Land (homesites and development parcels): 12 percent
• Commercial: 6 percent

The condo dominance is structural — most international buyers purchasing in Cabo are buying a second or third home, and condos offer the managed, lock-and-leave lifestyle they want. Our condo vs villa guide covers the decision framework.

Days on Market: Patience Pays

Average days on market (DOM) across Los Cabos is approximately 127 days entering Q4, up 8 days from Q3. This slight increase reflects the pre-season inventory buildup — more listings competing for buyer attention before the seasonal surge arrives.

DOM patterns vary significantly by price segment:

• Under $500K: 80 to 110 days average. This is the most liquid segment — first-time international buyers, investment condos, and entry-level resort properties move relatively quickly when priced correctly.
• $500K to $1M: 110 to 140 days average. The buyer pool narrows but remains healthy — step-up buyers, snowbirds purchasing their third or fourth property, and investors building rental portfolios.
• $1M to $3M: 130 to 180 days average. Luxury properties require the right buyer at the right time. The market here is less about price and more about matching — the buyer who wants that specific view, that specific community, that specific floor plan.
• $3M+: 180 to 300+ days average. Ultra-luxury is a thin market globally, and Los Cabos is no exception. Properties at this level sell when an individual buyer connects with the property, which can take months or years.

For sellers: the overpriced listing penalty is severe. Properties priced 10+ percent above comparable recent sales average 200+ days on market and typically sell at or below their correctly-priced level after one or more price reductions. Our resale market analysis identifies what is actually moving.

Q4 Buying Strategy: The September-November Window

If you are planning to buy this peak season, timing matters. The optimal window is late September through mid-November — here is why:

1. Inventory peaks before demand does. Sellers list in September and October to capture peak-season attention. But the full wave of American and Canadian buyers does not arrive until Thanksgiving week. The gap between peak inventory (now) and peak demand (late November) is your best negotiating window.
2. Summer carry costs motivate sellers. Properties that listed in May or June and have not sold are now approaching 120+ days on market. Sellers carrying HOA, maintenance, and mortgage costs through the slow summer are more motivated to negotiate in October than they will be in January when the market feels hot.
3. You close before the rush. A deal opened in October, with a 60 to 90 day closing timeline, closes in December or January — and you start earning rental income immediately during peak season. A deal opened in January does not close until March or April, missing a chunk of the peak rental window.

For the complete tactical approach, see our best time to buy guide and negotiation strategies.

Risks and Headwinds to Watch

No market report is complete without the other side of the ledger. Here are the headwinds that could affect Q4 and beyond:

• US interest rates: While most Cabo purchases are cash, US interest rates affect buyer psychology and the availability of US-side financing (HELOCs, cash-out refinances) that many buyers use to fund Cabo purchases. If US rates remain elevated, buyer financing capacity is constrained. See our US financing guide.
• Currency risk: The USD/MXN exchange rate affects both purchase pricing (most Cabo properties are priced in USD but some transactions involve MXN conversions) and ongoing cost of living. A strengthening peso increases expenses for USD-earning owners. See our currency guide.
• New construction supply: Cabo has a significant pipeline of new development — if completed inventory outpaces demand, resale values could face pressure, particularly in the $300K to $600K condo segment where new construction competes most directly. Our pre-construction vs resale guide covers the trade-offs.
• Insurance costs: Hurricane insurance and property insurance premiums have been rising globally. Los Cabos has been fortunate in recent hurricane seasons, but a significant storm event could spike insurance costs for the entire market. See our insurance guide.

The Bottom Line

The Los Cabos market entering Q4 2026 is healthy, growing at a sustainable pace, and offering more inventory than buyers have seen in three years. Appreciation is moderate and consistent — no bubble, no crash. The Corridor continues to lead on pricing and prestige, while the East Cape and Pacific Side offer the best appreciation momentum.

The strategic play: start your search now, before the Thanksgiving surge. The properties that have been sitting since summer are your negotiation targets. The new listings hitting the market in October are your broadest selection. And the deal you open in October closes just in time for peak rental season in January.

For context on how this compares to earlier periods, see our Q1 report, Q2 report, and Q3 rental income analysis.